Finding Busts using ADP


Opening day is quickly approaching!  While we are all digging deep into spring stats trying to find potential sleepers and possible busts, I figured it would be interesting to take another look at ADP and try to find some starting pitchers who are being over drafted.  We will touch on three starters. Madison Bumgarner, Jose Quintana and Collin McHugh. 

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Madison Bumgarner (ADP: 25 SP, 86 overall)

In 2016 Madison Bumgarner had a stellar season.  Posting a 2.74 ERA over 34 starts.  He set career highs in strike outs (251) and innings pitched (226.2).  Needless to say, coming into 2017 the big southpaw was touted as one of the top fantasy pitchers.  After making only four starts that season, Bumgarner suffered an injury to his throwing shoulder while riding a dirt bike.  It has been a steady decline ever since.

Shop Boston  Red  Sox gear at!As of right now in fantasy drafts Bumgarner is going as the 25th starting pitcher off the board.  In my opinion there is far too much risk taking him this high.  In each of the last two seasons the left hander has failed to top 130 innings pitched.  His velocity has dropped over the past few seasons and has not returned this spring.  In the past, a big part of Bumgarner’s appeal was his high floor.  Due to injuries and a decline in his skills I no longer see that with him.  For that reason I will stay away from the former ace this season.

Jose Quintana (ADP: 52 SP, 172 overall)

Jose Quintana is entering 2019 coming off possibly the worst season of his career.  Quintana saw his K/9 drop from 9.87 to 8.16, and his BB/9 balloon to a career high 3.51.  Giving hitters free passes and not being able to miss bats is a recipe for disaster.  Much like Bumgarner, I only see things getting worse for Quintana in 2019.

Jose Quintana checks off pretty much every box for a guy I don’t want on my fantasy staff.  He’s getting older, skills are diminishing and showing signs of wear and tear.  Most importantly, at this point in the draft I’m looking for much more upside than Quintana will bring to the table. 

Collin McHugh (ADP: 65 SP, 223 overall)

My issues with Collin McHugh are a bit different.  While I do worry about him maintaining velocity transitioning from a bullpen role to being a starter.  McHugh has shown in the past he has the repertoire to be a big league starter.  I have two concerns with McHugh, though.  The first is how talented and deep Houston’s rotation is.  The second is how well the right hander pitched out of the pen last year.

Coming out of spring training Collin McHugh and another important bullpen arm Brad Peacock are slotted in as the four and five starters.  When Josh James returns from a minor injury Peacock will likely slide back into the pen.  With top prospect Forrest Whitley being so close to the bigs I don’t see Collin McHugh’s time in the rotation lasting much longer than Peacock’s.  While McHugh was very successful as a middle reliever last year, that role would make him nearly irrelevant for fantasy baseball purposes.

Navigating the pitching minefield each year is nearly impossible.  Guys will have down years.  Others will suffer season ending injuries.  Many things that are unpredictable.  Using ADP to find guys being over drafted is one way to help stay away from potential busts.

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Boston Sports Syndicate: Finding Busts using ADP
Finding Busts using ADP
Boston Sports Syndicate
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